Using the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, I prepared a seasonally-adjusted chart of U.S. gasoline consumption. Note: This chart includes exports in consumption. U.S. gasoline exports have tripled in the past two years but still amount to less than 10% of consumption.
As you can see, after seasonal adjustment, there has been a strong downtrend. It could change direction at any time, but there is little sign of slowing or reversal just yet.
Note: This model (based on STL) is designed for making robust short-term predictions. As you can read in the article on my last attempt at modeling this series, the model retroactively adjusts the curve in the past. This facilitates seasonal adjustment, but the tail end of the curve is less accurate than the middle of it. If you want short-term projections, this model should easily defeat the more commonly used X-12 ARIMA seasonal adjustment model most of the time. Most U.S. government bureaus use X-12 ARIMA for seasonal adjustment. A notable exception is the CBO, which often uses STL.