Stocks Archive

A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDER’S RSI, PART 1

J. Welles Wilder, Jr. is one of the most influential figures in modern technical analysis. He developed several popular technical indicators. Among the most popular is his RSI, or Relative Strength Index. Calculation of RSI is simple:

From price series  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 of size  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1, calculate the price change series  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 of size  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 s.t.:

 A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1

From  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1, calculate two series of size ,  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 (for gains) and  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 (for losses) s.t.:

 A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1

and

 A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1

For  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 and  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1, we can calculate the Wilder’s Moving Averages A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 and  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1. From  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 and  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1 we can calculate Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI):

 A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS V. WILDERS RSI, PART 1

RSI is thought to have many uses as an indicator.  In particular, many investors believe that it can be used to indicate overbought and oversold levels.  Common values of RSI used to indicate overbought and oversold levels are 0.7, for overbought indications–and 0.3, for oversold indications.

In a historical database of stock prices retrieved from Yahoo! Finance, from close to close, from the end of the day when RSI crossed the threshold, from below 0.7 to above 0.7 and above 0.3 to below 0.3, to close five days later, the geometric average returns were (0.135%) for crossing above 0.7 and 0.603% for crossing below 0.3.  Using higher thresholds suggested even greater geometric average five day historical returns, (0.659%) and 1.765% for 0.8 and 0.2, respectively. While not every trade based on RSI makes money, clearly, it has been an incredibly powerful technical indicator.

(Note: When economists refer to Relative Strength, they usually mean the ratio of two price indexes.)

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A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS PART IV: MACD, PART 1

MACD, or Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, is one of the most popular technical indicators, second perhaps only to Bollinger Bands. It is very easy to calculate. The MACD indicator has three components: MACD, which is simply the a-period EMA minus the b-period EMA; the signal line, which is the c-period EMA of MACD; and the “MACD histogram,” which is MACD minus the signal. When the MACD histogram crosses above 0, that is thought to be a bullish indication. When the MACD histogram crosses below 0, it is thought to be a bearish indication.

A quick look at the five-day close-to-close price changes following MACD crossovers (using the popular 12, 26, 9 parameter values) suggests on a historical database of U.S. non-penny stocks (derived from Yahoo! Finance’s free stock price data) geometric average five-day gains of 0.382% following positive crossovers and (0.210%) following negative crossovers. The database contained no delisted stocks, so these results may understate the risk for purchases, but the evidence clearly supports the popular notion that MACD has been a powerful indicator.

This post contains images derived from works found at Wikipedia and used under license.

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Stocks & Commodities Magazine Available Free Online

While researching the Aroon indicator earlier today, I noticed that Stocks & Commodities magazine, considered one of the leading authorities on technical analysis, is available for free on their web site. You won’t be able to download the PDF edition without a subscription, but the archives area contains web versions of every volume since 1996.

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A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS II. STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR, PART 1

Hello again. If you have been following this series, you may have noticed that I haven’t yet comprehensively covered Bollinger Bands. We’ll be revisiting them in the future. For now, let’s turn our attention to one of my favorite technical indicators, the popular (but poorly-named) stochastic oscillator.

A stochastic oscillator takes three parameters and produces two outputs, known as %K and %D. The parameters are:

  1. A span parameter, which specifies how many bars the oscillator will cover. The most popular configuration is 14 days.
  2. A Ksmooth parameter, which specifies how many bars should be used for smoothing the %K oscillator. The most popular value is 3, but often people will use Ksmooth=1. This is known as the fast stochastic oscillator
  3. A Dsmooth parameter, which specifies how many bars should be used for smoothing the %D oscillator. The most popular value is 3. Occasionally people will use a shorthand specification where it is assumed that Ksmooth=Dsmooth. This is known as the slow stochastic oscillator

Calculation of the unsmoothed %K parameter is as follows: Look back of the last span bars and find the lowest and highest prices. Use the formula  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS II. STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR, PART 1. To calculate the smoothed version, calculate the simple average of the unsmoothed %K parameter over Ksmooth days, i.e.  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS II. STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR, PART 1. Calculation of %D is similar, but rather than smoothing the unsmoothed %K parameter over Ksmooth bars, we instead smooth the smoothed %K parameter over Dsmooth bars:  A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF POPULAR TECHNICAL INDICATORS II. STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR, PART 1

The stochastic oscillator is thought to signal noteworthy events when the %K line crosses the %D line. It is thought that where the crossover occurs is also of some importance; if a crossover occurs above 0.8, it is thought to have a different meaning than a crossover that occurs below 0.2.

Calculating stochastic oscillators on all major-exchange U.S. stocks at all timepoints in the Yahoo! Finance database that I have been using for test purposes (eliminating any stocks that have ever traded below $1.00) and then calculating the geometric averages of the five-day returns of stocks meeting various criteria leads to the following table:

14, 3, 3 Full Stochastic Oscillator Test Results, 5-day Close-to-Close, Geometric Averages
%K Crosses Above %D %K Crosses Below %D
Above 0.8 (0.043%) (0.071%)
Below 0.2 0.272% 0.387%
Geometric Average 5-day Return, Close-to-Close: 0.087%

From this table we can see that choosing a random non-penny U.S. stock and holding it for five days is not a very good strategy. But choosing a non-penny U.S. stock at close when its %K crosses below its %D below 0.2 and then selling it at close five days later has shown in the test data (which is, admittedly, somewhat incomplete) returns averaging about 20% per year (minus commissions). While it is impossible to say with certainty how well such a strategy would perform in the real world, clearly, there is more to the stochastic oscillator than random chance.

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Chart of the Day 2011/05/09: LinkedIn Revenue and Operating Cost

The LinkedIn IPO has generated quite a bit of buzz lately, and from a look at the relationship between their revenue and operating cost, it’s not hard to see why: It looks like they may have entered a stretch of increasing marginal operating profit, which might support rates of growth that increase over time.

It does look like perhaps LinkedIn has had some trouble handling high rates of growth in the past, particularly in 2008, when operating costs increased sharply. Revenue and operating cost appear to pretty closely follow exponential rates of growth, but there isn’t a lot of confirmation that revenue is actually growing faster than operating cost… odds of success look about 50/50. Then again, if revenue really is growing faster than operating cost, at those rates, LinkedIn could experience extraordinary rates of growth. How long the growth might last is an interesting question. LinkedIn is large and well-known, but they are surely far from saturating the market for professional social networking services. I estimate that their revenue could potentially multiply itself by several times over the next decade.

Be aware that LinkedIn shareholders are selling only a very small percentage of its shares today. Their revenue growth is not a sure thing but appears to have quite a bit of potential for investors who are not risk averse. But given the small amount of cash that will be raised relative to its valuation in today’s IPO, it is a good idea to wait if you want to grab a piece of LinkedIn.

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Chart of the Day 2011/04/13: Zipcar Operating Loss

Source: SEC

As you may be aware, Zipcar has an IPO tomorrow. I’d suggest that at this point, Zipcar looks like a poor investment. They will most likely turn profitable at some point, but that looks unlikely to happen in the next year. It is plausible, but the odds of profitability over the next 12 months are less than 50/50. There is quite a bit of buzz surrounding the IPO, but I would suggest that if you want to purchase Zipcar for the long run, understand that it carries a rather significant amount of risk, and it may be a long time before you get a return on your investment.

Considering all the excitement surrounding the IPO, the shares may soar, or Zipcar may turn into the next Vonage. Check to see which way the wind is blowing before sinking your teeth into any Zipcar shares.

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Chart of the Day 2011/02/09(2): IBM

IBM declined today. Note: I am switching to a view of a chart from Stockcharts.com, since Yahoo’s candlestick charting is unreliable.

Stockcharts has a nifty indicator called StochRSI, which applies Lane’s Stochastic Oscillator to Wilder’s RSI. I’m not terribly familiar with it, but StochRSI appears as though it would have worked fairly well at leading IBM’s performance over recent months. It suggests that IBM may have just entered overbought territory.

IBM’s MACD histogram is also getting close to 0 from the upside. I’m not a huge fan of MACD, but it is popular.

One more day of solid declines will bring IBM into bearish territory on both StochRSI and MACD. There appears to be some support around 164.45 though. If IBM convincingly breaks support tomorrow, further declines appear likely.

Update 2011/02/10 08:00 AKST: IBM opened low, peaked, and appears to be slowly cutting through support, which appears to be composed largely of small bullish investors.

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Chart of the Day 2011/02/09: IBM

IBM’s price has continued to climb on declining volume. I don’t see any impending doom on the horizon, and most technical indicators look fantastic, but if volume doesn’t pick up, a correction is inevitable.

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Chart of the Day 2011/01/27: IBM

To me, this chart doesn’t reveal a whole lot of insight into the future direction of IBM’s stock price. I often find that tech stocks are difficult to evaluate with technical analysis, but I’d say that this chart looks more bearish than bullish. There appears to be some amount of support around 155.50; if IBM falls to that level and fails to break support, it might be a good time to get in.

According to StockTA.com, IBM has support at 155.53 and is currently displaying a homing pigeon candlestick pattern. Also, IBM currently has a high Wilder’s RSI, but it crossed over 70 more than a week ago.

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EOD Stock Price Data Sources

Investors commonly wish to have their own database of stock prices. By far the most popular source of stock price data for daily EOD stock price data is Yahoo! Finance. You can download EOD price data for just about any listed U.S. stock, as well as numerous foreign stocks. They also provide a simple REST API for downloading current financial information, intraday quotes (15 minutes delayed), and other useful information. Many people use BeanCounter to maintain a historical database of Yahoo! Finance EOD stock prices.

You can also obtain EOD stock price data from EOD Data, and they also offer EOD data for a variety of other securities. They charge a fee for most of their offerings. I have never subscribed to their service, so I can’t vouch for its quality, but I expect that their stock price historical data is at least as good as, if not better than, Yahoo! Finance’s.

Stock Price Lookup also offers free historical data. Again, while I have no reason to believe that it contains a large number of defects, I can’t vouch for its quality.

The major exchanges also offer stock price data, but they may charge a fee for historical data.

There are a few things to keep in mind when analyzing stock price historical data:

Be aware that BeanCounter does not well handle stock splits and other important corporate events, so you may need to implement additional logic to ensure that your historical data is accurate. Errors in handling stock splits and other corporate events are unfortunately not unknown even even in purchased stock price data.

Many historical stock price databases do not contain stocks which are no longer listed. This often causes models prepared from such data to underestimate risk. CRSP’s stock price data has fewer defects than many stock price databases, and it does contain de-listed stocks, but it is not free. You may be able to access it at your local library. CRSP’s stock price data does not provide good coverage of penny stocks, which may in some circumstances lead models based on it to actually overestimate risk. I’m not aware of a good free penny stock market history database, but if you are aware of one, please feel free to let us know with a comment.

The Yahoo! Finance EOD data is undoubtedly useful, but it has gaps. Errors in Yahoo! Finance EOD data are not unknown either, and since it is free, it is certainly not guaranteed to be free from defects.

This post makes use of artwork under terms available at Wikimedia Commons.

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